Its difficult to think Memphis is betting favorites within Cincinnati this Friday.
The two G5 school football powerhouses have dominated, if on crime (Memphis) or shield (Cinci). The Tigers rank 1 place . Theyd set up a rematch from the AAC Championship.
But the Bearcats have trailed away lately. They have compiled a total of 140 yards over the past two weeks and conquer two sub-.500 teams this past month.
Memphis has won its past five matches by almost 20 points normally. This includes a road thumping a team which gave the Bearcats all sorts of fits of USF.
The Tigers received strong performances out of Brady White (30-7 TD-INT) around the plank. His 180.0 passer rating is 7th overall in the nation and best one of G5 QBs. However, RB Kenneth Gant has gone 97+ yards rushing in each of the previous nine matches, which will keep any defense.
This includes a Bearcats squad ranked 4th in turnover rate and 20th in opponents touchdown rate.
Memphis is the group that needs the triumph. Navy could sneak in over the Memphis about the West side of this summit. That may increase one that can be discovered on BetNow the line, and other online publications.
Following is a break down to prove whether the spread should be as large as possible.
Memphis defense goes undetected due to its prowess. But this is a squad that been trusted against qualified offenses.
Sure, the SMU game was a shootout, however, Navy (26th at FEI offense) and Tulane (30th) were held to 23 and 17 points, respectively. They can be a little hit or miss, such as seeing 109th-ranked Temple 30 points along with Tulsa (76th) 41.
They might find a break with all the Bearcats offense, however. They played with a tough Temple defense which defeat Memphis in the year, and rank in the top 50 in efficacy. But theyve come to be a unit that is nimble.
They havent had over 200 yards passing in a game since October 12th. Desmond Ridders 51.7% completion percentage the previous seven games is dreadful. Itd rank him 103rd from 106 QBs that are qualified if accumulated over a complete season.
With Memphis ranking 2nd in the league in passing yards allowed and defensive pass efficiency. Just three teams passed for a better or 60% completion percentage, so the Bearcats game must be next to nonexistent in this one.
They will have to lean on RB Michael Warren II, who is carried all the offensive load with 50 conveys within the previous two games. Even though the Memphis d-line is not spectacular, especially in short-yardage situations (104th in power achievement ).
However, the Bearcats are too dysfunctional right now to take advantage of any weakness. Averaging 3.6 yards per play with the previous two weeks will not get them very much. Not with Memphis offense putting up over 47 points a game.
Their only hope is that they can get the most out of runs to coax Memphis and also to control the clock. The Tigers position 118th .
This can be strength versus strength. An offense that is scored over 40 points in all three matches, along with a defense that is held seven 11 opponents to below 20 points.
It is better to diagnose exactly what these units to put into their dominance and are good.
While Memphis is in the top 20 in every efficiency factor and 7th overall in FEI offense, their sole flaw is turnover speed (69th). Their offensive line isnt rewarded for their success on the floor. Placed at 94th in substance speed, 105th in power success, and 98th in line lawns, it is clear Memphis doesnt rely on a slew of intermediate profits. They rely on some ones that are explosive.
They can continue to keep this close, if Cincinnati can eliminate run. Theyre common in metrics across their defensive front but possess flexibility and the speed overall to battle Memphis.
They have allowed just 3.26 YPA on the ground over the past five games. To put this in perspective, the average racing YPA in the FBS is 5.0. On the average of 38.8 carries theyve allowed in this interval, which would come to a gap of 68 yards.
So they might place 35th in hurry yards . However, their YPA ranks on that stretch in the top 15. They have only allowed a touchdown run on every 57.75 communicates during the second half of this year. The top defense in the entire Team of Five, san Diego State, provides one every 38 carries up.
That said, QB Brady White will have to be to pull away. He also needs to stay out of trouble using INTs. He has seven season, or just one for each 43 passes. But thats a huge average from a defense ranked 7th.
Nevertheless, this can be a Tigers offense occupying the top-7 in touchdown , explosive forces, and possession efficacy rate. The Bearcats did hold the UCF offense to 20 points below their season average point total. On the flip side the typical competition of Cinci is 75th in scoring, with Ohio and UCF State the sole ones rated in the top-60.
Cincis defense extends from letting 13.3 PPG to 27.8 PPG from home/road splits. Although the instant sees a spike because of Ohio State (42 points), its also that way due to lowly East Carolina (43).
In a matchup between hardy and volatile, Memphis will triumph. When the Bearcats D sets a similar performance just like against the Knights, they do not have the offense to make use.
The only breakout performances since September of cinci come in scoring defense from teams. As long as a team prevents from Warren II wearing them down, theres not much to deal with otherwise. Off of any match, this offense wont violate the lid without a single offensive TD more than 17 metres in any of their past four games.
They were held by the two best defenses to play this season to Memphis . And Cincinnati is a considerable amount better than Navy and also Temple concerning agility. Theyre the one that produces the turnover problems, and also the consistent defense that the Tigers have played.
However, with the momentum they have at every spot that is offensive right now, on top of the need for your win, will help Memphis pull away. They will win by 2 touchdowns, even if the Tigers are stored into the smallest sum of points theyve had because their opener.
That items are on offense through the atmosphere, particularly for Cinci.
Prediction: Memphis 34
