This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a great deal of money from this week and that I can’t wait to chase these huge prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier just tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my first chair into it last week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at that $50k decoration, and then I will probably take a few shots in the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the cash game lineup this week in his -800 betting line. I’ll take that free square foot and move on. He should dominate this battle and he can finish it on the toes or the ground. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am perfectly fine with paying 9.6k for that. When I am making lineups, I would like to try and get at least 10x from every fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I need at least 96 points from him. That is how I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I didn’t think Jones could get a finish then perhaps he only scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t want that. However, this is a potential 5-round fight, and I do expect Jones to control, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I believe that you can get away from Jon Jones because he will be quite highly possessed. If he is 50% owned by the field and he simply scores 85-90 DK points, then will pretty much kill half the area because that would not be sufficient points to place him that $50k lineup.
GPP play of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it will be out of his wrestling. He’s among the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and now he’s finally getting a chance from the UFC after dominating every organization he has been in. He won’t wish to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, so that I expect him to take for takedowns right away and string wrestle until he gets them. When he gets top control there is not going to become a lot Robbie can perform on the floor and he must take a beating as long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, each takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points to get a substantial strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns in 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a great play if he is able to come up with the success.
Underdog drama of the week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This is not the Diego Sanchez of old, but I think he has what it takes to beat Mickey Gall. On the toes, the volume from Sanchez should acquire it there so long as he doesn’t get pumped out. The chin of Diego is exactly what I worry about most nowadays, but Gall isn’t much of a striker and I don’t see him getting knockout. I also don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and that I believe Sanchez are the more likely man to be on top if the struggle hits the ground. There is A entry Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez has never been submitted. We have to have underdogs within our DK lineups and also at $7.1k Diego enables us to cover up for all those men like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he could grind out a decision triumph here I think he can get 10x that wages and if we can find a win from him in that cheap salary, I think we will probably be in line for this $50k win when we hit our additional 5 spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using every fighter because I am making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the guy I want the least of. I try to acquire a favored for you guys as my fade of this week but I do not think there are any must fade favorites this week. Rather, I’m going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a chance. I believe that a fluke KO is the only route to victory for Smith and he really does not possess the 1 punch/kick power that it might take to pull that off. I’d be amazed when Smith pulled off the upset this week and if I had been making 20 or less lineups, then he would be an easy fade.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 58-37 to get +177.62u (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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