The green flag drops for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 in ISM Raceway in suburban Phoenix on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. After an electric start to the season at Daytona and 2 quick 1.5-mile tracks in Atlanta and Las Vegas, Phoenix is the Monster Energy NASCAR cup series’ first race at the tighter quarters of the one-mile loop at ISM Raceway. Kevin Harvick has won four of the previous five March races in this track and will be the 9-4 favorite to accumulate another win at the latest 2019 TicketGuardian 500 chances. Fellow veteran and Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin is becoming 16-1, while Kurt Busch is at 30-1 NASCAR in Phoenix chances after a solid start to his period that has him eighth in the NASCAR standings. Prior to making your own 2019 TicketGuardian 500 selections, make sure you look at the NASCAR in Phoenix projected leaderboard from the SportsLine Projection Model.
Developed by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive data scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors like track record and recent results into account.
It made some enormous calls in NASCAR this past year, including properly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. in Sonoma. Plus it’s off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin a top-four competition and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers at a week’s Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. Anybody who has followed its picks is far up.
McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like ISM Raceway are in his bloodstream. His model has simulated Sunday’s 2019 NASCAR in Phoenix race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.
For your 2019 TicketGuardian 500, we can tell you the model is high on Clint Bowyer, making a strong run at the checkered flag despite heading off as a long shot at 25-1 NASCAR odds. He’s a goal for anybody searching for a huge payday.
Bowyer broke a five-season drought without a win and proceeded to grab a pair of victories at Martinsville and Michigan on the road to a 12th-place finish in the NASCAR Playoffs. This season, he has added a top-five finish at Atlanta and has shown impressive speed occasionally. Bowyer has seven career top-10s at Phoenix and won a truck series race at this track in 2010.
Bowyer, who pushes for Stewart-Haas Racing, was second in one of this year’s Daytona Duels and shut out a year’s NASCAR schedule using an eight-place ending at Homestead. He’ll also come armed into the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 with a similar car set up to teammates Harvick and Aric Almirola.
One of those shocking 2019 NASCAR in Phoenix picks from the version: Kevin Harvick, a nine-time winner at ISM Raceway and the very best Vegas favourite, makes a solid run but falls short of winning it all.
Harvick has made a career from getting to the front of the pack consistently at this particular track. In fact, he has finished in the top 10 in 11 consecutive starts at ISM Raceway
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