This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my very first seat into it a couple weeks ago and I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $25k decoration, then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There actually are no cash game guards this week for me personally but I went with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so that I enjoy the ground she brings to the table. In addition, I believe she wins the fight and I think she is going to be the fighter going for takedowns. I don’t understand how large her ceiling is in cash games it does not really matter too much since we do not need to hit 1st place in a double-up. I’d expect about 10x from Yana in a choice win and I will take that day in my cash games.
GPP play of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights tend to score highly as there are a great deal of scrambles and all the grappling improvements really add up. I anticipate this is a really fun battle, but it ought to be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I’m always trying to find a minimum of 10x in my fighters and also at $8.3k I would be amazed if Smolka didn’t get that with a win. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point reduction to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I adore Smolka as a GPP drama here and when he wins I’d expect near 100 DK points.
Play of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a struggle that I expect to stay standing, I’ve quite a lot of interest in this fight. I believe it’s going to be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is likewise the mid-range fight of this week, so that I think that a KO from either guy would have a good chance to put them on the optimal lineup. I like it even more because I am choosing the underdog to get the knockout and that I anticipate Millender to be the greater owned fighter. I’ll have this struggle in over half my lineups, but I shall most likely have at least double the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I believe it is a much better GPP struggle than it’s for money games, but I believe dos Santos is in play for cash since he is an underdog and I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, but I’ll have a fantastic amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of the week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at the salary and I really don’t see that happening. If he wins a clear 30-27 conclusion, then he likely scores mid 70’s and at his price tag that will not win anyone a GPP. I really don’t believe he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I think he uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he does go for takedowns then I do not see him filing Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO from him to pay off that salary and I am not willing to take that risk with my money. That’s why he is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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