NASCAR heads to its third 1.5-mile oval track this year, and the first time all year we’ll see a repeat at the rules package and tire wear combination. Texas is a low tire wear similar to Las Vegas, as a result of its repave and reconfiguration.
As a result, this race at Texas should most closely resemble the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway — yet another 1.5-mile low tire wear oval that used the aero duct package.
NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Read now Not only will I be leaning heavily on vegas, but we should also think of the races at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Auto Club Speedway, that have been run under similar, but not totally comparable circumstances. I utilize Texas data to judge history since the 2017 repave.
There are 3 head-to-head matchups that provide value.
Kevin Harvick (+130) over Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is the defending race winner at Texas and also the hottest driver on the circuit, which will be driving Busch’s price with this one. But give me Harvick in Texas. If you’re in Las Vegas for the NCAA Tournament, Westgate has this at +130. In reality, I take Harvick down . Looking at average green flag speed at Las Vegas, Atlanta and Auto Club’s three ovals, Harvick gets the second-best speed, edging out Busch who comes from third. But looking at Las Vegas alone, Harvick had the fastest green flag average speed while Busch came in third.
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