NASCAR heads to its third 1.5-mile oval track this year, and the first time all year we’ll see a repeat in the principles package and tire wear mix. Texas is a low tire wear oval, similar to Las Vegas, thanks to its repave and reconfiguration before the 2017 season.
As a result, this race at Texas should most closely resemble the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway — yet another 1.5-mile low tire wear oval that used the aero duct bundle.
NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Read now Not only will I’m leaning heavily on vegas, but we should also think of the races at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Auto Club Speedway, that were conducted under comparable, but not entirely comparable conditions. I use Texas data as the 2017 repave.
There are three head-to-head matchups that offer value heading to the weekend.
Kevin Harvick (+130) over Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is the defending race winner at Texas along with also the most popular driver on the circuit, which is driving Busch’s price with this one. But give me Harvick at Texas. Westgate has this at +130, if you’re in Las Vegas for the NCAA Tournament. In reality, I would still take down Harvick . Looking at flag speed at the three big ovals of Auto Club, Las Vegas and Atlanta, Harvick has the rate, edging Busch that comes from third out. Looking at Las Vegas alone, Harvick had the green flag typical rate while Busch came in third.
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