NASCAR heads to the third 1.5-mile oval track this year, and the first time all year we’ll see a repeat at the principles package and tire wear combination. Texas is a low tire wear oblong, similar to Las Vegas, as a result of reconfiguration and its repave prior to the 2017 season.
As a result, this race at Texas should closely resemble the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway — yet another 1.5-mile low tire wear oval that utilized the aero duct bundle.
NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Read now Not only will I be leaning heavily on vegas, but we should also consider the races at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Auto Club Speedway, which were run under similar, but not entirely comparable conditions. I’ll also utilize Texas data as the 2017 repave.
There are 3 head-to-head matchups that provide value heading to the weekend.
Kevin Harvick (+130) over Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is the defending race winner at Texas along with also the hottest driver on the circuit, which will be driving Busch’s cost on this one. But give me Harvick at Texas. Westgate has this in +130 if you are in Las Vegas for the NCAA Tournament. In fact, I would still take Harvick down to +120. Looking at flag speed in the three big ovals of Las Vegas, Atlanta and Auto Club, Harvick gets the second-best rate, edging Busch who comes from third out. Looking at Las Vegas alone, Harvick had the fastest flag average speed while Busch came in third.
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