Rule #1: Watching the films nominated for the Oscars does not help you Correctly predict who will win the Oscars
Rule #2: Paying attention to sites watching Oscar voters can help you accurately forecast the winners. Actually, I would posit that someone who has watched none of the nominated movies but has followed Oscar Watch for the previous two weeks will perform miles better than a film fan that has been running like a crazy bastard trying to get all the nominated movies before their face so as to become”educated” when they cast their ballot.
Rule #3: When in doubt, go with the premise that the most significant block of voters will behave less like curators of quality film and more like high school pupils opting a prom court.
I haven’t watched all the films which were nominated. I have seen less than half of these, in fact. This makes me educated on what’s been nominated than large swaths of this Academy. And since I’m cleanly divorced from the idea that the supply of those treasured golden dildoes relies on merit, forecasting the Oscars is an entirely mercenary exercise. Which it should be, if you’re going to get the maximum pleasure out of the glittery gladhandjob erupting this coming Sunday.
After the jump, your Oscar Ballot Cheat Sheet. Follow it closely if you want to tidy up at whatever party you are attending (we propose either the Hollywood Theatre’s shindig, or ShanRock’s Trivia and watching party), and examine my explanations as to why these are the smart picks, and therefore you need to trust me because I’m hardly wrong about whatever. Ever. Really.
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Finest Manager: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Finest Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Luzbeki, Gravity
Best Editing: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger, Gravity
Best Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Best Costume Design: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Finest Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Best Original Song: Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez, Let it Go from Frozen
Very best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro, Gravity
Best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Timothy Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Gravity
Finest Documentary Feature: Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S??rensen, The Act of Killing
Finest Documentary Short: Malcolm Clarke, Carl Freed, The Lady in Number 6
Best Animated Short: Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short: Xavier Legrand, Just Before Losing Everything
The Whys and Wherefores:
The Academy does not reward comedies if they can reward an extremely significant movie instead. So comedies like Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are right out. So are sci-fi films, and films with notions that are generally”weird.” Those sorts of films are relegated into Screenplay nominations, normally. That’s their consolation prize. This is the reason 12 Years will take Best Picture. I don’t think they are likely to split Picture and Director, either. Rewarding the movie is a message in and of itself (much like Crash was as it won), giving Steve McQueen and John Ridley statues will underline that message: the Academy is a considerate, compassionate group of people. They’re not, but they love pretending that they are. These are individuals who love the power of story, particularly if that storyline is all about them and can make them feel good about themselves. The standard of the film is secondary to its ability to help send that message.
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