Rule #1: Watching the Movies nominated for the Oscars does not help you Correctly predict who will win the Oscars
Rule #2: Paying attention to sites watching Oscar voters can help you correctly predict the winners. Actually, I would posit that somebody who has watched none of those nominated movies but has followed Oscar Watch for the last two weeks will perform miles better than the usual film fan who has been running like a mad bastard trying to get all the nominated movies in front of the face so as to become”educated” whenever they cast their ballot.
Rule #3: When in doubt, go with the premise that the most significant block of voters will behave less like curators of quality movie and more like high school pupils opting a prom court.
I have not watched all the films that have been nominated. I have seen less than half of them, in fact. This makes me educated on what’s been nominated than big swaths of the Academy. And because I’m cleanly divorced from the concept that the supply of these treasured golden dildoes is based on merit, forecasting the Oscars is a totally mercenary exercise. Which it should be, if you’re going to have the maximum enjoyment out of this glittery gladhandjob erupting this coming Sunday.
After the jump, your Oscar Ballot Cheat Sheet. Follow it closely if you would like to tidy up at whatever party you are attending (we propose either the Hollywood Theatre’s shindig, or ShanRock’s Trivia and watching party), and read my explanations as to why these are the wise picks, and therefore you need to trust me because I am barely wrong about anything. Ever. Really.
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Manager: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Finest Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt
Finest Cinematography: Emmanuel Luzbeki, Gravity
Finest Editing: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger, Gravity
Finest Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Finest Costume Design: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Finest Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Best Original Song: Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez, Let it Go from Frozen
Very best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro, Gravity
Best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Timothy Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Gravity
Finest Documentary Feature: Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S??rensen, The Act of Killing
Finest Documentary Short: Malcolm Clarke, Carl Freed, The Lady in Number 6
Best Animated Short: Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short: Xavier Legrand, Only Before Losing Everything
The Whys and Wherefores:
The Academy does not reward comedies when they could reward a very significant film instead. So comedies such as Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are right out. So are sci-fi films, and films with concepts that are generally”weird.” Those kinds of films have been relegated to Screenplay nominations, normally. That’s their consolation prize. This is the reason 12 Years will take Best Picture. I really don’t think they’re going to divide Picture and Director, either. Rewarding the film is a message in and of itself (similar to Crash was when it won), providing Steve McQueen and John Ridley figurines will populate that message: the Academy is a thoughtful, compassionate group of people. They’re not, but they love pretending that they are. These are people who appreciate the power of story, especially if that narrative is all about them and will make them feel good about themselves. The quality of the movie is secondary to its capacity to help send that message.
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