Rule #1: Watching the films nominated for the Oscars does N’t help you Correctly predict who’ll win the Oscars
Rule #2: Paying attention to websites watching Oscar voters can help you accurately predict the winners. In fact, I’d posit that someone who has watched none of the nominated films but has followed Oscar Watch for the previous two weeks will do miles better than a movie fan that has been running like a mad bastard trying to get all the nominated movies before their face so as to be”educated” whenever they cast their ballot.
Rule #3: When in doubt, go with the premise that the most significant block of voters will act less like curators of superior film and more like high school students electing a prom court.
I have not watched all the movies which were nominated. I’ve seen less than half of these, in fact. This makes me educated on what has been nominated than big swaths of this Academy. And because I’m cleanly divorced from the concept that the distribution of these treasured golden dildoes is based on merit, predicting the Oscars is an entirely mercenary exercise. That it should be, if you are likely to have the most enjoyment out of this glittery gladhandjob erupting this coming Sunday.
After the jump, your Oscar Ballot Cheat Sheet. Follow it closely if you would like to clean up at whatever party you are attending (we propose either the Hollywood Theatre’s shindig, or ShanRock’s Trivia and viewing celebration ), and examine my explanations as to why those are the wise picks, and therefore you need to trust me because I’m barely wrong about whatever. Ever. Really.
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Finest Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Finest Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best First Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt
Finest Cinematography: Emmanuel Luzbeki, Gravity
Finest Editing: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger, Gravity
Best Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Finest Costume Design: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Finest Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Best Original Song: Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez, Let it Go from Frozen
Best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro, Gravity
Very best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Timothy Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Gravity
Finest Documentary Feature: Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S??rensen, The Act of Killing
Finest Documentary Short: Malcolm Clarke, Carl Freed, The Girl at Number 6
Best Animated Short: Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short: Xavier Legrand, Only Before Losing Everything
The Whys and Wherefores:
The Academy doesn’t reward comedies if they could reward a very serious movie instead. So comedies such as Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are right out. So are sci-fi movies, and movies with notions that are generally”weird.” Those kinds of films have been relegated to Screenplay nominations, normally. That’s their consolation prize. This is why 12 Years will take Best Picture. I really don’t think they are going to divide Picture and Director, either. Rewarding the film is a message in and of itself (much like Crash was as it won), providing Steve McQueen and John Ridley figurines will populate that message: that the Academy is a considerate, compassionate group of people. They are not, but they really like pretending that they are. These are individuals who love the power of story, particularly if that narrative is all about them and will make them feel great about themselves. The quality of the film is secondary to its capacity to help deliver that message.
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