Rule #1: Watching the films nominated for the Oscars absolutely does not help you Correctly predict who will win the Oscars
Rule #2: Paying attention to sites watching Oscar voters can help you correctly forecast the winners. In fact, I would posit that somebody who has watched none of the nominated movies but has followed Oscar Watch for the previous two weeks will perform miles better than the usual movie fan that has been running like a mad bastard trying to get all the nominated films in front of their face in order to be”educated” when they cast their ballot.
Rule #3: When in doubt, go with the premise that the largest block of voters will behave less like curators of quality film and more like high school students electing a prom court.
I have not watched all the movies that were nominated. I have seen less than half of them, in fact. This makes me educated on what’s been nominated than big swaths of the Academy. And since I am cleanly divorced from the idea that the distribution of these treasured golden dildoes is based on merit, forecasting the Oscars is a totally mercenary exercise. Which it should be, if you are likely to get the most enjoyment from the glittery gladhandjob erupting this coming Sunday.
After the jump, your Oscar Ballot Cheat Sheet. Follow it carefully if you want to clean up at whatever party you are attending (we suggest either the Hollywood Theatre’s shindig, or ShanRock’s Trivia and viewing celebration ), and read my explanations as to why these are the smart picks, and so you need to trust me because I am barely wrong about anything. Ever. Really.
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Manager: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Finest Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Finest Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best First Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Luzbeki, Gravity
Finest Editing: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger, Gravity
Best Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Best Costume Design: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Finest Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Best Original Song: Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez, Let it Proceed Frozen
Very best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro, Gravity
Very best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Timothy Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Gravity
Best Documentary Feature: Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S??rensen, The Act of Killing
Finest Documentary Short: Malcolm Clarke, Carl Freed, The Lady in Number 6
Best Animated Short: Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short: Xavier Legrand, Just Before Losing Everything
The Whys and Wherefores:
The Academy doesn’t reward comedies when they could reward a very serious movie instead. So comedies such as Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are right out. So are sci-fi films, and movies with concepts which are generally”weird.” Those sorts of movies are relegated into Screenplay nominations, typically. That’s their consolation prize. That is why 12 Years will take Best Picture. I don’t think they’re likely to split Picture and Director, either. Rewarding the film is a concept in and of itself (similar to Crash was when it won), providing Steve McQueen and John Ridley statues will underline that message: the Academy is a thoughtful, compassionate group of individuals. They’re not, but they love pretending they are. These are people who love the power of narrative, particularly if that narrative is about them and can make them feel good about themselves. The quality of the film is secondary to its capacity to help send that message.
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